Fantasy Sports Blogger

Every Sunday morning there are multiple sources of good, late-breaking news from across the league on different networks. You can really blow your morning though by watching all the coverage looking for that golden nugget of info if you have a last minute decision to make. I’m really in favor doing your homework by Saturday, making a decision and then seeing how it plays out on Sunday. Last second guessing can be made on only one piece of information and may skew your overall analysis. Believe me, I’ve done it before so I can profess on this topic.

However, if you need that Sunday morning data, the best thing to do is to Tivo ESPN Countdown from 10am-Noon Central time. Then at about 1130a start forwarding through it until you see a stadium reporter, John Clayton or Chris Mortenson. They pop-up from time to time and can give you the info you so desire.

Weather - Looks like there might be some rain and storm issues in Florida like there were yesterday. They had to take a Lightning delay in Orlando for the Texas-UCF game on Saturday. That might affect the ATL-JAX, NOS-TBB and DAL-MIA games.

If only all prognosticators had the cohones to tell you when to sit your starters and elevate your bench players like I will this season. I mean, who told you to start Chris Brown and Plaxico Burress over Reggie Bush and Lee Evans last week? Well, it wasn’t me but you get the picture of what I’m aiming at here.

My over/under for this is 15 points for QB & RB, 10 for WR & DST and 5 for K & TE. Judge me on Tuesday.

Bench Starts
QB: Jeff Garcia - Should be playing from behind but look what Indy did to NO also
RB: B. Jackson - Entire Giants D is on IR this week it seems
WR: S. Holmes - Bills D is susceptible to long pass this week
TE: D. Clark - TEN showed signs of weakness down the middle
K: J. Carney - Should have many opportunities in a closer game than most think
DST: STL - At home and play SF coming off hard fought Monday night victory

Starters to Bench
QB: T. Romo - Jason Taylor will ride him like a mule this week!
RB: S. Alexander - Zona looks tough against the run this year
WR: R. Moss - Brady won’t have time to get it down field to Moss
TE: Heap - Boller never really has clicked with Heap in my opinion
K: Vinatieri - 4 extra points and a long missed FG right before half
DST: DEN - Oakland always finds a way to mess with Shanahan

Picks Against the Spread
ATL (+10.5) @ JAX - When has JAX won by more than 7 lately (forget that Jets win)
PIT (-9.5) vs. BUF - Bills are riddled with injuries and have to be drained this week
CIN (-6.5) @ CLE - Browns are that bad but this will be close until the 4Q
GB (+1) @ NYG - Changes if Eli plays but if not always play against Home favorites of <3
TEN (+7) vs. IND - Titans play well at home and Colts not as speedy on grass
CAR (-6.5) vs. HOU - Panthers have too much speed for Texans
STL (-3) vs. SFF - Originally I thought 49ers take this but upon further review I like SJ
NOS (-3.5) @ TBB - Normally like the home dog but Saints should go big in this one
MIA (+3.5) vs. DAL - Beware of the home dog, Jason Taylor, Chambers and the Sauna
ARI (+3) vs. SEA - Beware of the home dog part 2, Is that a cast on Alexander’s arm?
DET (-3) vs. MIN - Basically a pickem game but Lions showed more Offense last week
CHI (-12.5) vs. KCC - Danger, Danger but Chiefs still finding way with Offense
BAL (-4.5) vs. NYJ - No way Kellen Clements hangs more than 10 points on Ravens
OAK (+9.5) @ DEN - Culpepper will find a way to keep this close
SD (+3.5) @ NEP - Chargers play well at Pats and will be able to pressure Brady
PHI (-7) vs. WAS - Typically these are close games but Philly will explode this week

As promised here are my rosters for my four teams and who I’m starting this week (in italics) and why…

Team 1 Roster of 10 team veteran league
(Co-founder and 2 time champ of this league but it’s been awhile since I’ve hoisted our wooden Stanley Cup of a trophy but I’m off to a good 1-0 start because of a weak opponent’s lineup in week 1.)

QB: Leinart, V. Young - Leinart has better history versus Seattle
RB: F. Gore, McAllister, Jordan, C. Williams, L. White - Tough choice between Mc and Jordan but Mc should have field day with undersized front seven of TB
WR: S. Smith, R. Williams, S. Holmes, W. Welker, D. Patten - Holmes has my eye especially if DET keeps spreading the ball around
TE: D. Clark, LJ Smith - Hoping LJ is better than iffy soon but until then I’ll go with Clark with good matchup
K: Mare - Got my eye on Hanson, could be the Wilkins of DET this year
DST: SD - Not a good matchup but I have a feeling about a return TD this week

Team 2 Roster of 12 team PPR league
(I’m new to PPR leagues so I’m not sure what to expect. So far, I’m 1-0)
QB: Leinart, Schaub - If Leinart doesn’t wake up this week then Schaub is looking pretty
RB: Parker, Bush, Jordan (flex), Dunn - Jordan figures to catch many dump off passes from Culpepper with Bailey/Bly covering WRs
WR: Wayne, R. Williams, L. Coles, Welker, Randle El - Coles might have been flex option if not for Kellen Clements start at QB
TE: Witten, Scaife - I’m a Cowboy hater but I like Witten’s production
K: Gostkowski - Only kicker but I think this is a good week for him
DST: Chicago - After facing SD last week, this should be big week for them
(Picked up Welker and Randle El to replace M. Jones and backup K)

Team 3 Roster of 10 team, auto-draft, 3rd year, work league
(I’m defending champ of this league and off to 0-1 start so I’m nervous already)
QB: Brees, Leinart - Brees has to do better this week right?
RB: Gore, Parker, D. Williams, Jordan - Wish I could start 3 of them
WR: A. Johnson, R. Williams, D. Branch - Little worried about this position this week, hope I’m wrong
TE: LJ Smith, Scaife - If Scaife would have done anything last week he would get the start over gimpy LJ
K: Gould, Mare - Gould should have field day this week
DST: Baltimore, Jacksonville - Kellen Clements, Tasty!
(Picked up D. Williams when someone dropped him unbelievably, traded Eli Manning for Leinart last weekend, we’ll see if this is good long term)

Team 4 Roster of 10 team, auto-draft, 2nd year, work league
(Also defending champ of this league and off to 0-1 start so I’m equally nervous)
QB: McNabb, Leinart - McNabb should have 3TD game or us Philly and McNabb fans will be in trouble.
RB: Gore, Parker, D. Williams(flex), J. Lewis - Tough choice at flex between DW and Stallworth but DW should bust a long one at home in 4Q on HOU
WR: R. Wayne, R. Williams, D. Branch, D. Stallworth - Think this might be Harrison’s big week but Wayne should do alright
TE: LJ Smith, Daniels - I like Daniels but not at CAR this week
K: Mare - Only kicker but should get 5 extra points at least
DST: Baltimore, Jacksonville - Did I mention Kellen Clements is expected to get the start for NYJ this week?

My Survivor pick this week is Pittsburgh. Sorry Bills fans, I feel like I’m dogpiling this week and I know Berman says “NO ONE…Circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills!” but they have to be emotionally drained this week. Plus PIT at home is pretty good as well.

I will give my warning for all of you thinking Dallas looked like a world beater last week against the Giants. The Fish are waiting for you Dallas in that sauna of a stadium. I like Miami to win this game outright as Dallas has no answer for Jason Taylor or Chris Chambers.

It’s late. Look for my picks against the spread, my bench starts and starters to bench tomorrow afternoon.

How many of you are going to work about 15 minutes each and every Friday during football season? Really, I’m alone on that one? Maybe 45 minutes of work then…

You should have already scanned those initial Wednesday injury reports by now to see how your running back’s offense line looks this week and how that opposing front seven going against your running backs is measuring up.

Next you should have peaked at the opposing CBs against your WRs and QBs. This becomes a little bit more important as the season wears on but ask the Giants and Cowboys about missing their top CBs can affect the other team’s production.

However almost every team looked surprisingly strong against the run in week 1 (minus the Jags and Saints). I don’t see this as a trend or else we will all be taking a run on WRs in next year’s draft in the first 2 rounds. No way is MIN and ARI that good against the run for the course of a season.

Look for Friday afternoon’s official NFL injury list to be updated by going to the nfl.com’s injury page around 5 or 6pm for the latest news. By the way, they say that Probable is 75% chance of playing, Questionable is 50% and Doubtful is 25% but in my experience it’s more like 95%, 70% and 30%.

What other preparation should I be doing? Well believe it or not you should be taking note of the weather or lackthereof for dome teams. I’m not talking about hot, cold, rain or snow. I’m thinking wind here. Wind has the most devastating affect on QBs, WRs and K outside of a good rush. Anything above 20mph sustained or gusts over 25mph should be used as a decision tool. As I spot them for myself I’ll be sure to share.

Things to ponder going into this weekend…Will Detroit continue to spread the wealth or will that high potential, 3rd round pick of Roy Williams get more than 4 catches and 20 yards each week? How many weeks will Herm Edwards continue to limit LJ’s carries? How long before Adrian Peterson takes over full time for Cedric Benson?

My answers…Roy will get his usual soon, maybe even this week. At about 0-3, Herm will decide that his job is more important than LJ’s long term health. When is Chicago’s bye week? Week 9? Oh it will be 2 weeks before that at PHI.

Tomorrow night, I’ll give you some surprise starters and bizarre benchings. Each week we’ll see if I’m right on Monday/Tuesday. The over/under success line is 15 points for QB, 10 points for RB, WR and Defenses, and 5 points for TE and K.

I’ll also list out my 4 team rosters and who I will start, I’ll give you my picks against the spread in every game and I’ll give you my Survivor pick of the week. For the record, in week 1, I went 2-2, .500 against the spread and Seattle survived.

The best AFC teams (IND, SD) are still better than the best NFC teams (NO, CHI). However, the worst NFC teams (WAS, DET) are better than the worst AFC teams (OAK, MIA). Go figure.

Adrian Peterson (MIN) and Tony Romo are the real deal. Knee-Jerk, you may be looking at the Rookie of the Year and MVP right there.

RBs (Insert any top 5 RB not named Addai here) always start slow. WRs (Insert any prolific pass catcher here) seem to have the edge though.

Portis/Betts, Foster/Williams, Taylor/MJD, White/Brown and Bush/McCallister will split carries. Good for Betts, Williams and Bush owners.

Matt Leinart now has a rookie center, rookie guard and 2nd year tackle blocking for him. Tie that chin-strap on tight Mattie!

Lamont Jordan still has it against weaker teams. Carnell Williams does too; the injury bug that is.

NFL really does mean “Not for long” (Thank you Jerry Glanville), especially if you’re a Browns starting QB.

Commentary: If you get caught cheating in a game (NE), shouldn’t you forfeit the game instead of losing draft picks? Sounds like the NCAA policy of punishing the guys who come into the program after it’s been cleaned up.

Question of the day: Of 1-0 GB, MIN and DET, which team gives 0-1 CHI the run for it’s money in the division?

Number of the week: 175, as in number of yards rushed by Chris (page down) Brown against the so-called stout JAX defense. Excuse me, have we met?

Best Pickups… Ronald Curry, Wes Welker, Antwan Randal El, Dante Culpepper, Chris Brown, Selvin Young (Henry will get hurt, mark my words)
Best Drops… Chester Taylor, Matt Jones, Mike Bell, Charlie Frye

Remember that the 6pm Wednesday NFL IR list every week is your first insight into where you can take advantage of good matchups, especially for your receivers.

So why start a blog now?

I don’t know.  Really, I think I’ve been wanting to tell people what’s going on in my mind for some time.   I want to share my weekly grind and obsession to see who else out there wants to hear about it, laugh with it, laugh at it or just shake their heads.    

So what are you going to tell us?

Along with making you laugh from time to time, I hope to provide you some insight into some of my decision-making each week.   Maybe that will help you in a certain week or over the course of the season.  I’ll tell you how I arrived at starting my weekly lineup in 4 fantasy leagues, one national game, a survivor league and a pick’em against the spread league.

So why don’t you give draft insights?

Quite frankly, I don’t think that I’m the best to give draft advice.  I’m a whole lot better at weekly decision making than I am drafting.   A lot of emphasis is placed on draft day but you can’t win a championship by just drafting a good team.  The same goes for drafting a bad team.   You have all season to get better.   Look at who was probably a starter in league playoffs last year, Romo, Jones-Drew, Betts, Colston, Kaeding, etc.   I bet none of you had them drafted.  Plus, draft advice is given out in so many venues that it has become clichéd at best.

So what’s next?

Each day I hope to add some thoughts about the upcoming weekend’s games.  I’m not perfect.  I may miss a day but I hope to give you something each day and every day.

Welcome along for the ride and thanks for reading my thoughts, literally that is…