SurvivorWhat a horror show last week!  My lock of a pick, NYG, looked like they forgot to take the Bengals seriously until about halfway through the fourth quarter.  By then, Carson and TJ had a rhythm already.  Thankfully they came through when it counted.  By the way, go back and look at my advice for week 3.  I told you I feared the Bucs and they pulled off a stunner!  I told you to stay far away from the NE-MIA game and I advised severe caution on the Bills game.  I hate to pat myself on the back but I told you so!

This week is even worse.  If you have survived so far, it just seems to get harder.  A quick scan of the games reveals that almost every game is a divisional game or former divisional game this week.  I will stay away from these games for sure…PIT-BAL, SD-OAK, DEN-KC, ATL-CAR, GB-TB, HOU-JAC and SF-NO.  As bad as OAK and KC are on the road, they still can turn it around at home.  The games that I considered are BUF-STL, PHI-CHI, MIN-TEN and DAL-WAS.  

As much as I like the road teams to win, I just can’t break that rule so BUF and PHI are out.  I think TEN is the real deal but something tells me they haven’t played a D like Min has to offer yet; Danger, Danger.  So I am looking at breaking a rule to pick DAL.  But wait, I forgot about my tiebreaker rule.  If all games look too close to call, go with the best team playing at home regardless of who they are playing.  Therefore, I am picking Dallas to beat the Redskins.

Previous Weeks and Teams Used:
Week 1 - New England
Week 2 - Arizona
Week 3 - NY Giants

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