Fantasy Sports Blogger

Thanks to some untimely turnovers, I went 2-2 last week against the spread.  In fact, I think Tennessee and Carolina may have just turned it over again.  Didn’t it look like Arizona knew exactly where Delhomme was going to throw it each time he dropped back?  In looking at the 2 games this weekend, it doesn’t get any easier to pick a winner straight up or against the spread.   As has been the case all season, I like the road teams to be ahead early in these games.   Eventually I think one home team finishes off it’s guest though.  Here’s a window to my thoughts…

PHI @ ARI (Eagles are 4 pt favorites)
Again, I always start any discussion about the Eagles with the caveat that I’m a huge Philly fan.  There’s no denying this team has shown traits that the last few non-Patriot champions have shown.  Tough D and timely O have carried this team to victory in 6 of their last 7 games.    For the Cardinals, they have shown that they can throw on anyone no matter the stakes.  Arizona has a new found run D and is getting the opposition to turn it over as well.   As I’ve told all my friends this week, this one comes down to 2 things in my mind; red zone efficiency and turnovers.  McNabb has proved in his career that he does a little bit better job of protecting the football than Warner.   I think the Eagles D will get one more turnover and make the Cardinals kick FGs in the red zone.   Nothing surprises me when it comes to the Eagles in the NFC championship, but I think McNabb wins over Warner in this rematch of QBs from the 2002 NFC Championship. 
Eagles 31 - Cardinals 23

BAL @ PIT (Steelers are 6 pt favorites)
Wow, these teams know how to hit and hurt the other teams don’t they.  I have to say that these teams have proven throughout the year that they are very similar.  The 2 times they played the games came down to a play here or a play there.  Pittsburgh is playing in Heinz Field where they have had some hiccups in the AFC championship games before.  The Ravens are streaking with this Flacco wunderkind at QB.  This game comes down to execution when you are this familiar with each other.  I think Baltimore uses momentum and a couple of turnovers to get an early lead but PIT proves that FWP really does stand for Fast Willie Parker as he is the difference maker to me.  The Steelers may be down at half but they surge back to win this at the gun, setting up the Keystone SuperBowl.
Steelers 16 - Ravens 13

All in all last week I ended up at 3-1 with my picks againts the spread.  Only Indianapolis disappointed me and probably eveyone else.  In looking at the 4 games this weekend, it is really hard to pick a winner in 3 of the 4 games.    I like the road teams to keep these games close.  Here’s a glimpse of my thoughts.

.

BAL @ TEN (Titans are 3 pt favorites)
Everyone has focused on the possible repeat Wildcard performance run to the Superbowl that the Giants had last year.  They keep mentioning the Eagles in that same sentence.  However, I think the Ravens are acting the part much better than the Eagles.  They have a high hurdle this weekend.  If you are a gambling person, I would definitely take the under in 3 of these 4 games this weekend, with this being one of them.  I don’t see either team getting much done on the scoreboard.  I like the fact that the Titans have had a week off.  I believe their ability to play error free football and their defense keeps them slightly ahead in this game.  Therefore I’m predicting an end to the Raven run. 
Titans 17 - Ravens 13

ARI @ CAR (Panthers are 10 pt favorites)
Arizona proved they belonged in the playoffs with a solid win last week over the Falcons.   I like the fact that the Panthers have the ability to run the ball at will and still can throw it over the top to veterans Smith and Muhammed when it’s called for.  Of course, the Cardinals will have their weapons too.   I don’t think Carolina can shut down Arizona (munis Boldin) enough to blow them out.  I think the Cards keep it close but run out of steam in the end.
Panthers 30 - Cardinals 24

PHI @ NYG (Giants are 4 pt favorites)
Here we go.  The NFC East showdown is in front of us.  I have no issue telling you I pull for the Eagles and I bleed green.  I’m not sure the Eagles can knock off the champ in the champ’s house.   The Eagles have a tendency to make too many mistakes in the red zone and in the kicking game at the wrong time.   You can do that against average teams and come back  to win but against a solid team like the Giants it will catch up with you.  The weather will favor the Giants but I don’t think they blow out the Eagles.  They slide by with a late FG and a defensive stop.
Giants 20 - Eagles 17

SD @ PIT (Steelers are 6 pt favorites)
Unlikely as it sounds, the Chargers are in the divisional round and they return to the scene of the NFL’s only 11-10 game in history.  I respect the fact that the Bolts stopped Peyton enough to squeek by them in OT.  However, I think playing in the safety of your own house versus the cold weather of Heinz field is a 10 point swing.  As much as Big Ben scares me everytime he drops back to pass, I think he will get enough of his running game to be dangerous.  Again, I like the underdog Chargers to keep this close by utilizing the ultimate weapon Sproles.   In the end they don’t have enough.
Steelers 24 - Chargers 20

If you would have told me that Philadelphia, Miami and San Diego would make the playoffs a few weeks ago, I probably would have laughed at you.  Well they’re in, and they’re part of this weekend’s Wildcard Playoff weekend. 

In looking at the 4 games this weekend, you see a real trend.  It’s hard to pick against the road teams.  They are all very good and probably would have won the divisions that their opponent’s hail from.  If you look at the games individually, I see 3 of the 4 road teams winning.  Here’s a glimpse of my thoughts.

ATL @ ARI (Falcons are 2.5 pt favorites)
I think Arizona has a little better defense than they’ve showed in the last 6 weeks.  When good running teams came into their building (MIA, BUF, DAL, NYG), they showed the ability to slow them down enough to win or at least have a chance to win.  Then add in some other tidbits, like Kurt Warner’s experience, Matt Ryan’s inexperience, Boldin and Fitzgerald’s size advantage and the good elements under the dome, I see an Arizona close victory. 
Cardinals 27 - Falcons 24

IND @ SD (Colts are 1.5 pt favorites)
I know San Diego has been surging but they still finished the season at 8-8.  Mr. Parcells used to have this saying that you are what you are (record-wise).   That makes the Bolts mediocre.  Look, I really think the Chargers were the beneficiary of 2 ridiculous collapses.  The obvious is the Broncos.  The not so obvious is the Bucs.  If not for Denver, Tampa Bay would be getting grilled for backing out of the playoffs with 4 straight losses, including the loss at home to SD.  I really like Peyton’s experience and offense.  I think they’re defense needs work but it’s good enough to beat the Chargers.
Colts 27 - Chargers 23

BAL @ MIA (Ravens are 3 pt favorites)
Miami is a great story this year but I think they have done it with smoke and mirrors.  Pennington won his second comeback player of the year award in 3 years.  How bad was he in 2007 to get it again in 2008?  I think Baltimore’s defense is just too good for the Dolphins.  They will turn Miami into a one dimensional team and Chad doesn’t have the arm to make the deep throws hurt the Ravens.  The Ravens offense is not stellar but solid.  We’ve heard this before right? 
Ravens 30 - Dolphins 17

PHI @ MIN (Eagles are 3 pt favorites)
I’d be a liar if I didn’t tell you the Eagles are my lifelong favorite team.   Maybe you need to take my points with a grain of salt.  It’s true the Eagles are streaking but don’t forget they are capable of some egg laying.  However, the Vikings have their share of broken yolks themselves this year.  If Andy Reid continues to mix the play calling up and continues to include Buckhalter, I think the Eagles are just too good for the Vikings defense.  On the other side of the ball, Tavaris has not seen a defense playing this well all year.  If the Eagles can box in Peterson and Taylor and force Jackson to beat them, I like the Eagles handily.  Given the home field, I will temper my pick slightly.
Eagles 27 - Vikings 19

If you though that the fantasy football was done and you are experiencing withdrawals, fear not.  NFL.com has put together it’s annual NFL playoff challenge.  It’s free and it’s got a worthwhile prize of tickets to next year’s SuperBowl.  Give it try!  It’s better than waiting until next year!  I guess there’s always fantasy golf!