Thanks to some untimely turnovers, I went 2-2 last week against the spread. In fact, I think Tennessee and Carolina may have just turned it over again. Didn’t it look like Arizona knew exactly where Delhomme was going to throw it each time he dropped back? In looking at the 2 games this weekend, it doesn’t get any easier to pick a winner straight up or against the spread. As has been the case all season, I like the road teams to be ahead early in these games. Eventually I think one home team finishes off it’s guest though. Here’s a window to my thoughts…
PHI @ ARI (Eagles are 4 pt favorites)
Again, I always start any discussion about the Eagles with the caveat that I’m a huge Philly fan. There’s no denying this team has shown traits that the last few non-Patriot champions have shown. Tough D and timely O have carried this team to victory in 6 of their last 7 games. For the Cardinals, they have shown that they can throw on anyone no matter the stakes. Arizona has a new found run D and is getting the opposition to turn it over as well. As I’ve told all my friends this week, this one comes down to 2 things in my mind; red zone efficiency and turnovers. McNabb has proved in his career that he does a little bit better job of protecting the football than Warner. I think the Eagles D will get one more turnover and make the Cardinals kick FGs in the red zone. Nothing surprises me when it comes to the Eagles in the NFC championship, but I think McNabb wins over Warner in this rematch of QBs from the 2002 NFC Championship.
Eagles 31 - Cardinals 23
BAL @ PIT (Steelers are 6 pt favorites)
Wow, these teams know how to hit and hurt the other teams don’t they. I have to say that these teams have proven throughout the year that they are very similar. The 2 times they played the games came down to a play here or a play there. Pittsburgh is playing in Heinz Field where they have had some hiccups in the AFC championship games before. The Ravens are streaking with this Flacco wunderkind at QB. This game comes down to execution when you are this familiar with each other. I think Baltimore uses momentum and a couple of turnovers to get an early lead but PIT proves that FWP really does stand for Fast Willie Parker as he is the difference maker to me. The Steelers may be down at half but they surge back to win this at the gun, setting up the Keystone SuperBowl.
Steelers 16 - Ravens 13
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