Fantasy Sports Blogger

All those guys over there at ESPN can tell you it’s a no brainer to start Peterson, Brees, Megatron or Gates each week.  I really don’t see any of them showing you when to start a second/third tier guy from your bench over a normal starter.  That’s what this weekly post looks to accomplish.  I want to give you the best possible matchups to consider versus the guys you auto-start each week.  Last week I seemed to inspire Schaub by telling you to bench him.  My starts were fairly week as well.

QB - Eli Manning (Trent Edwards is close 2nd)
RB - Forte (Ok, this is a shot of confidence pick)
WR - Braylon Edwards (CLE will be throwing)
TE - B. Watson (Only NE target that’s healthy)
K - Tynes (He’s getting many opportunities)
DST - Chargers (MIA Offense may be MIA)

QB - McNabb, Hasselbeck are injured
RB - Westbrook (hurting)
WR - NE receivers (just not healthy)
TE - Winslow (Giants too good)
K - Bironas (swirling winds of Meadowlands)
DST - Bills (Saints Offense is rolling)

Picking games against the spread is very humbling.  Last week I went from 2-5 early on to finishing at 8-8 and I think I was extremely lucky to finish there.  I was really surprised by underdogs playing so well.  For the year, I’m 18-14 in all games and 5-4 in my locks.  Let’s take a look at week 3.  I think there are more scary games out there.  In particular, early injuries are making some of these games befuddling.  NE may have to sign a receiver or two tomorrow if Welker and Moss can’t go.  Barber may be out but so is half of the Carolina defense.  Philadelphia may have to play Vick at RB, WR and QB with McNabb, Westbrook and Desean Jackson hurting.  I feel like this could be a 12-4 or 4-12 week easily.  I like a lot of dogs to cover but lose this week.

KC +9.5 @ PHI - Too many ifs for Eagles to win big
CLE +13.5 @ BAL - Divisional game red flag alert
STL +6.5 vs. GB - Packers O line in shambles
TB +7 vs. NYG - This could easily be a push
NYJ -2.5 vs. TEN - Everybody else is picking Titans
DET +6.5 vs. WAS - Call it a sympathy pick
HOU -4 vs. JAX - Jags & Texans confuse me
ATL +4 @ NE - Pats Offense is hurting
SF +7 @ MIN - I’ve flip-flopped 5 times on this one
NO -5.5 @ BUF - Saints on too much of a roll
CHI -2 @ SEA - Cutler/Forte over Wallace/Forsett
CIN +4.5 vs. PIT - Bengal D better than PIT D?
OAK -1.5 vs. DEN - Such a toss up game
SD -6.5 vs. MIA - Monday night hangover for Fins
IND +2 @ ARI - Last team with the ball wins
CAR +9.5 @ DAL - DAL wins easy but CAR will score

Very brief update this week as I have been struggling to catch up with other things.  

1. Tashard Choice RB DAL - Barber down, Choice gets 30-40% of DAL running workload.  Oh by the way, DAL Run Offense is #1 in NFL right now.

2. Kevin Kolb QB PHI - Sneaky pick versus KC D but very weary of PHI injuries to Westbrook and Jackson.  I’m also weary of Vick and Wildcat sniping his attempts.

3. Byron Leftwich WR TB - Byron will be throwing a lot at Tampa this year.  There D is soft and they will behind more than I originally thought.

4. Brent Celek TE PHI - He was a pre-draft sleeper for me and he looks to have done nothing but improve his stock in the first 2 weeks.  He’s in my league’s top 5 at TE.

5. Laurent Robinson WR STL - I swear he must be Donnie Avery in disguise.  However, he seems to be the one bright spot for a troubled Ram offense.

I can’t believe I lost in my Survivor pool already.  What was up with GB on Sunday.  The Bengals had just been deflated the previous Sunday by the mother of all tipped ball, hail mary, last second touchdown catches.  Why couldn’t the Packers pummel them?  Well, that’s why we watch apparently.  To see the downtrodden rise up and the strong fall.  Well, I hope you disagreed with me and went with WAS or DEN or BUF or SF, you know the safe picks.  Geez.   Well, the good news is my weekly post will continue but the bad news is that I have no credibility.I have to admit that I’m in love with this Baltimore team.  They seem to be able to do no wrong.  And they are getting a nice gift at home in the form of CLE.  I’m doubling down on BAL this week.

All those guys over there at ESPN can tell you it’s a no brainer to start Peterson, Brees, Megatron or Gates each week.  I really don’t see any of them showing you when to start a second/third tier guy from your bench over a normal starter.  That’s what this weekly post looks to accomplish.  I want to give you the best possible matchups to consider versus the guys you auto-start each week.  Last week I seemed to inspire Tony G and the Philly D by telling you to bench them but the others went pretty well.  Let’s re-rack and try again.QB - Garrard (ARI D may wakeup at halftime)RB - D. McFadden (Lit it up last year @ KC)WR - E. Royal (Home opener vs. CLE)TE - Carlson (Feels like a bandwagon pick)K - Janikowski (Can’t believe I just typed that)DST - Falcons (Delhomme still starting)

QB - Schaub (McNabb too obvious)RB - S. Jackson (WAS has tough run D)WR - R. Williams (He’s not as good as he thinks)TE - Gates (BAL is tough test)K - Bironas, Brown (May be kicking in the rain)DST - Eagles (Playing the video game that is called the Saints)

What a way to get the season going!  That is, until Monday night!  Heading into Monday night, I was 10-4 and 3-0 on my locks for the week.  Well, that quickly turned into 10-6 and 3-2.  Oh well, I won’t complain.  Week 2 looks like a completely different animal this week.  It looks like half the games are 3 points or less which is almost virtual pick’ems.  Lots and lots of red flag warnings for over reacting to Week 1 outcomes.  Are the Rams, Panthers, Texans, Bengals and Dolphins that bad?  We also have the Cardinals travelling east to Jacksonville for a 1pm Eastern start.  Last time they did that, I think the Jets put 55 on them and Boldin was knocked out!  I will definitely have fewer locks (*) this week.  Remember my pick appears first on the left.

CAR (+6.5) @ ATL

DET (+10) vs. MIN

GB (-9) vs. CIN

*JAC (-3) vs. ARI

OAK (+3) @ KC

*NYJ (+5.5) vs. NE

PHI (-0.5) vs. NO (Homer pick)

HOU (+7) @ TEN

STL (+10) @ WAS

BUF (-4.5) vs. TB

*SEA (+1.5) @ SF

PIT (-3) @ CHI

DEN (-3) vs. CLE

BAL (+3.5) @ SD

DAL (-3) vs. NYG

*IND (-3) @ MIA

Wow, it took forever to get here but Week 1 delivered some great games.  It’s good to see that as things always change, some things never do.  Like Buffalo.  Will you ever be able to close anything out?  No, Hull’s skate was not in the crease in case you are still hung up on that by the way.  Here’s 5 people you should grab before they are gone…

1. Joe Flacco - QB - BAL.  ESPN’s Matthew Berry is very high on this kid.  He definitely can deliver against the bad defenses.  If you look at his schedule, there’s nothing outside of two dates with Pittsburgh that really scare you.

2. Jeremy Shockey - TE - NO.  If I had things to do all over again, I’m sure I would have taken Brees second overall in my draft this year.  This guy keeps throwing and throwing until your neck hurts from looking where he’s throwing it.  Right now, he’s getting it to Shockey in the red zone.

3. Cadillac Williams - RB - TB.  I was really impressed by his bursts.  For a guy who’s had 2 season ending knee surgeries, he looked like the bionic man out there.  I’d take him soon as it looks like he’ll get many opportunities.

4. Patrick Crayton - WR - DAL.  Crayton has been lost in all of the talk about Owens departure, Williams and Witten stepping up and Romo breakin’ up with Jessica.  This guy plays the Alvin Harper part well.  I think he’ll have big games in the right matchups all year.

5. Ben Watson - TE - NE.  Not that this guy hasn’t been on the radar.  It’s that he’s been out of favor with Fantasy owners as he manages to disappear for weeks at a time.  Hopefully, his two TD Monday night will get higher on Brady’s list.

There were some struggles but pretty much everyone came through for you except for Arizona who has the Superbowl hangover.  This week looks many times tougher.  I’m not a big fan of road teams no matter how much they are favored.  I really like only one matchup this week.  That’s GB to dominate a Bengals team who has lost its way and may lose its coach soon enough.

Recap of Past Picks…

Week 1 - New Orleans Wins 

All those guys over there at ESPN can tell you it’s a no brainer to start Peterson, Brees, Megatron or Gates each week.  I really don’t see any of them showing you when to start a second/third tier guy from your bench over a normal starter.  That’s what this weekly post looks to accomplish.  I want to give you the best possible matchups to consider versus the guys you auto-start each week.

QB - Joe Flacco (KC’s Defense is that bad)
RB - Cedric Benson (Could be the start of comeback)
WR - Josh Morgan (SF will be throwing a lot)
TE - Shockey (Detroit’s CBs are not bad but LBs?)
K - Hauschka (Did you know he was BAL’s K?)
DST - Seahawks (Playing Rams, enough said)

QB - Cutler (GB tough at Lambeau)
RB - Jacobs (WAS has tough looking front 4)
WR - Steve Smith (Delhomme + Asante = not much)
TE - Gonzalez (He’ll be a force later this year)
K - Folk (May be kicking in the rain)
DST - Eagles (Not sure about Run D post Jim Johnson)

In 2008, I picked every NFL game and ended up at 132-117-8 (53% success).  It doesn’t sound as impressive as it felt week in and week out.  This year I’ve decided to put some confidence levels with my picks and see if I’m as good as I think I’ve been.  In week 1, I really like the favorites on paper.  My star picks of the week are heavy favorites but they could be 7 more and I still would pick them.The winners of the games our on the left with the point spreads as they were listed on Tuesdays.  The games with asterisks are my confident picks.  Usually there will be 4-6 of those games each week.  Good luck!!

TEN +5 @ PIT

ATL -4 vs. MIA

CAR +1 vs. PHI

WAS +6.5 @ NYG

*BAL -9.5 vs. KC

CIN -4 vs. DEN

DAL -5.5 @ TB

*JAX +7 @ IND

NYJ +4.5 @ HOU

MIN -3.5 @ CLE

*NO -13 vs. DET

ARI -6.5 vs. SF

STL +7.5 @ SEA

GB -3.5 vs. CHI

*NE -10.5 vs. BUF

*SD -9 @ OAK