Archive for October 17th, 2009

Wow, I finally broke out of three consecutive .500 weeks in a big way!  10-4 doesn’t really tell the whole story as I went 8-0 in the early games.  I’m fairly sure I have never done that before.  I was also 3-1 on locks with only the last second Dolphin TD blemishing my picks.   Now I was 2-4 for the rest of the weekend, proving what goes up must come down.  I said it about week 4 and I’ll say it about week 6, I’m afraid of this week.  When the good and bad teams play each other, they have a tendency to be very inconsistent.  I think I will be lucky to stay above .500 this week but here are my picks.  Remember they are on the left and the locks are marked with an asterisk.

HOU +5 @ CIN — Something smells about a 5 point spread for CIN
DET +13.5 @ GB — Just too many points for banged up Packers
JAX -10 vs. STL — I may get hurt by these first 3 picks
MIN -3 vs. BAL — Changed my mind twice on this one
NO -3 vs. NYG — Tough one, going with home team
PIT -14 vs. CLE — Steelers have hammered CLE last few meetings
TB +3.5 vs. CAR — Home dog; can’t pass it up
KC +6.5 @ WAS — Redskins always play close ones
PHI -14 @ OAK — 2 TDs is a lot but this is the Raiders
SEA -2.5 vs. ARI — Another close one; and I’m taking home team
NE -9.5 vs. TEN — Titans could pull upset or lose by 20
BUF +10 @ NYJ — Got a feeling that Bills keep this close to the end
ATL -3 vs. CHI — Falcons won by 2 in 08; They are even better
SD -4 vs. DEN — Chargers have lit up good defenses all year

All those guys over there at ESPN can tell you it’s a no brainer to start Peterson, Brees, Wayne or Gates each week. I really don’t see any of them showing you when to start a second/third tier guy from your bench over a normal starter. That’s what this weekly post looks to accomplish. I want to give you the best possible matchups to consider versus the guys you auto-start each week.

Start
QB - Campbell, Garrard
RB - C. Williams, Bradshaw
WR - Burleson, Avery
TE - J. Finley
K - Scobee
DST - Patriots

Bench
QB - Favre, Edwards
RB - K. Smith, L. Johnson
WR - A. Johnson, C. Johnson
TE - Gates
K - Reed
DST - Giants

I’m really not a fan of many players this week.  I have told you in the past to pick up Tashard Choice, Brent Celek, Miles Austin, Rashard Mendenhall, Austin Collie, Burleson but the pool is a little shallow this week.  Here’s who I do like for you to pick up though…

1.  Jeremy Maclin WR PHI - Kevin Curtis’ days could be numbered in PHI if Maclin and Jackson turn into Duper and Clayton for the Eagles.

2. Matt Hasselbeck QB SEA - I know he played the helpless Jags and they are on they’re 4th left tackle, but I’m betting he’s available in some leagues as some guys couldn’t afford to keep a banged up QB on their roster.

3. Donnie Avery WR STL - He’s healing up and he plays well at home.  Guess what.  The Rams play 4 of their next 5 games at home.  Sounds good to me.