Archive for October 31st, 2009

I rebounded in Week 7 with an above .500 week.  But it again was so close to being a great week!  Minnesota botches the 4th Quarter, Houston blows a 21 point lead and the Resdskins blow every chance handed to them to be in Monday night’s game.  For the week I was 7-5-1.  That takes my record down to 46-36-1 for the year.  I was 3-1 on my locks.  I’m now 4 above .500 on those picks at 12-8.  This week, I think some lines are very favorable (i.e. Denver) and some not so favorable (SD by 17) to pick.  Picks on left.  Locks have asterisk.

*DEN +3.5 @ BAL - Denver just gets no respect from Vegas

HOU -3.5 @ BUF - Is it me or does Houston play better on the road

*CLE +13.5 @ CHI - If Anderson wakes up, Browns could win this game

DAL -10 vs. SEA - I think Ware will imprint his jersey number on Hasselbeck

STL +4 @ DET - Another Yuck game, but Rams should stay close

IND -12 vs. SF - Riding Colts until they show weaknesses

*MIA +3.5 @ NYJ - I always underestimate Sparano but not this week

NYG +2.5 @ PHI - Hard to pick against my team but McNabb is way off right now

JAX +3 @ TEN - Is Vince Young the answer?  I think not.

SD -17 vs. OAK - Chargers not great but Raiders are that bad

GB -3 vs. MIN - I just don’t have a feel for this game so I choose the home team

CAR +9.5 @ ARI - Hard to take ‘Zona by more than TD even though they should win easily

*ATL +10 @ NO - I think Miami drained the Saints a bit.  Expect ATL to step up here.

All those guys over there at ESPN can tell you it’s a no brainer to start Peterson, Brees, Wayne or Gates each week. I really don’t see any of them showing you when to start a second/third tier guy from your bench over a normal starter. That’s what this weekly post looks to accomplish. I want to give you the best possible matchups to consider versus the guys you auto-start each week.

Start
QB - Flacco, Orton, Hasselbeck, Garrard
RB - Kevin Smith, LeSean McCoy
WR - Mike Walker, Lee Evans
TE - Shockey
K - Kaeding, Folk, Hanson
DST - Cardinals, Chargers

Bench
QB - McNabb, Eli Manning
RB - DeAngelo Williams, Johnathan Stewart
WR - Boldin, Calvin & Andre Johnson
TE - Gonzalez
K - Elam
DST - Seahawks, Falcons

For the third straight week, there appears to be very little to choose from in the free agent pool.  There are a few speculative pickups and a one game situational pickup. 

1. Jamaal Charles RB KC - It looks like Larry Johnson’s days are over in Kansas City.  If so, it looks like Jamaal Charles is your next best RB there.  

2. Lee Evans WR BUF - In most leagues he was probably drafted but he may be availble after another abysmal start to his season.  He seems to have developed a good repoire with BUF’s new QB Fitzpatrick. 

3. Alex Smith QB SF - This is a stretch but if you can project SF having to throw more than Smith may actually be productive for a stretch.  He’ll have a big test against the Colt defense this week.  If he can show something this week he may be productive the rest of the season.

4. Fred Davis TE WAS - With Cooley down for at least 4 weeks, Davis proved on Monday night that he can catch passes.  He may not be able to block but he can catch.  I would take him as an IR replacement for Cooley if you don’t need somebody this week as WAS is on a bye.

5. Cardinals D/ST ARI - This is a one week pickup.  ARI welcomes the turnover prone Panthers to town this week.  This should be a safe week pickup if you have a bad matchup or a bye.

Honorable Mention: Shon Greene RB NYJ, Chris Wells RB ARI, Mike Wallace WR PIT (maybe next week’s pickups)

Last week Houston jumped out to a huge lead only to hang on by a thread.  But hey, a win is a win is a win.  If only there wasn’t that Week 2 blemish on my record.  I would be 6-1.  Oh well.  Moving into Week 8, there are still some huge mismatches on paper out there.  Do you remember the scene in the original Bad News Bears where the Yankee coach tells his players …”Take second, take third, take any base you want!”  Well that pretty much describes my top 5 plays this week.  SD over OAK, CHI over CLE, DAL over SEA, IND over SF and ARI over CAR.  Take any of them and you should be safe.  I’ll take DAL over SEA for my official pick.